Secondary Thoughts March 21st, 2021
“…the line between public and private markets continues to blur.”
// For those of you that write every week, and especially every day, I salute you.
// Scarcity is one variable that can give value to an asset. You’re hearing this come up more often these days as crypto is now top of mind. But when it comes to time, scarcity is the ultimate driver. For everyone, time is becoming more scarce thus raising its value. If you could buy this time asset now, how much you would pay? Eventually, this asset becomes priceless. Because I can’t buy it outright, I need to trade it. So, I’ve decided to reallocate some of my investable time assets to other projects which hopefully have a higher return.
First, apologies for the absence. Long story short, I’ve been chasing opportunities within the private/public market. Which is a good thing. But there has been extreme guilt on my part for not pushing out content and not continuing the momentum. However, I find solace in the fact that via this newsletter I’ve met some amazing people, but it’s time to move on to the next chapter.
// I started writing about the “blurring of the private and public markets” in 2014 when I saw the “smart” investors move down the pipeline. One of my first pieces back then was titled “Sell Buffett, buy Andreessen.” Essentially saying buy the private market and sell the public market. Also thinking, perhaps in a way, the old rules of investing no longer apply to today’s market.
Since, I’ve been helping investors navigate this “new market” and in my own selfish pursuit decided to start writing more via Substack. I began SecondaryThoughts in July 2019 before the Substack land grab. My goal was to write for two years, but, unfortunately, it looks like I’ll come up a few months short.
Here’s what I wrote in my first newsletter that still holds true for me today…
“This is my attempt to educate myself, and hopefully others, about markets and marketplaces. There has been a paradigm shift in the public and private markets where investors are looking for more alternative strategies to find value. This isn’t a cycle or a shift in asset allocation. It’s the start of a new type of investing, a new type of investor. A new model. Granted this shift started about 10 years ago, post-market crash, but the momentum has started to snowball. My theory, or my hope, is that by analyzing the history of markets, and current marketplaces, will point to where these new markets are headed.”
Ironically, Ray Dalio the very next day, wrote about a paradigm shift. To where, my reply was, his perspective only looked at the history of the markets to predict where we would go. He wasn’t taking into account possible futures with the recent structural changes that had been bubbling up where investors and entrepreneurs were creating a truly brand new investing paradigm.
(This was prior to the pandemic which has both magnified and expedited these trends.)
On the markets…
// As I’ve written before, I know where we’re going but I don’t know how we’ll get there. With that said, I’m going to stick to my thesis of ‘there is a new market on the horizon and the merging of the private and public markets is now imminent.’
In terms of the markets today, we’re at an inflection point. Right now there is a plethora of opportunity, and at the same time a ton of risk. It’s counterintuitive, but I believe a market that only goes up has more risk than a market that goes up and down. Be sure you’re hedged.
On what’s next…
// As stated above, I’m going to continue to help investors with this new market and partake in these new opportunities. I’m going to parlay the momentum I started with this newsletter and continue to learn about the evolution of this market, but I plan to dig even deeper. I’m going to research and analyze obscure data and trends to see if I can discover any “edge.” If I do find something of interest, don’t be surprised if I pop back into your inbox to show what I’ve found.
// It’s true what people say about writing. It’s extremely valuable. The more you put into it, the more you get out. It’s helped me with critical thinking, helped me to learn, helped me to discover, helped me be accountable, and helped me find people of similar interests. It’s weird (and awesome at the same time) when you put stuff out there the positivity that is reciprocated.
For me, writing is addicting. And I don’t plan on kicking this addiction. So, in the near future, I’m going to take this energy and apply it to a separate project I’ve been thinking about for a while now. I hope to share more down the road.
I’d love to continue the conversation outside of this newsletter. You can find me at email@example.com
// Thanks again.